A Feasibility Study for a Law School in Nevada (bound)

The Center for Business and Economic Research University of Nevada, Las Vegas

A Feasibility Study for a Law School in Nevada

4505 Maryland Parkway

Las Vegas, Nevada 89154

Telephone:(702) 739-3191

Prepared by

R. Keith Schwer, Ph. D. Director

With assistance from

George L. Fussell, M.B.A. Research Associate Mohammed H. Risheg, M.B.A. Research Associate

August 15, 1990

FORWARD

This study has been accomplished under the guidance of the Law School Advisory Committee chaired by UNLV Senior Vice President and Provost John C. Unrue. The study team received valuable consultation from Dean Steven R. Smith of the Cleveland-Marshall College of Law at Cleveland State

University. Professor Larry Strate (a member of the Law School Advisory Committee) came to our assistance often with answers to numerous questions. His continued encouragement and boundless energy helped push the project forward. In addition, he offered substantive comments to our first draft. Nancy Flagg of Vice President Unrue's office kept us abreast of meetings and deadlines. She graciously filled numerous requests for study materials. Mr. Mo Risheg managed the data collection and contributed to the analysis. Mr. George Fussell helped in the preparation of figures and tables. Mrs. Sharon Green typed the manuscript. All inaccuracies, whether small or large, remain

the unassisted product of the author.
R. Keith Schwer

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. Background 2 B. Purpose of Study 3 C. Scope of Study 3 D. Study Methods and Report Arrangement 4

II. THE UNIVERSITY MISSION STATEMENT AND THE
PROPOSED LAW SCHOOL 6

A. UNLV Mission Statement 6

B. Goals of the Proposed New School 7 III. THE NEED FOR A LAW SCHOOL IN NEVADA 8

A. Minimum State Population Size for a Law
School 9

B. Nevada's Population Growth Since 1950 10 C. Nevada's Economic Growth 10 D. Nevada's Economic Trends and Forecasts 15

1. Summary Economic Indicators 17 2. Personal Income Estimates 17 3. A Nevada Economic - Demographic Model 19 4. Forecasts 20

E. Public Policy Needs 21 1. Serving Nevada's Legal Environment 31 2. Supporting the Legal Profession 32

11

••

TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED)

4. ESTIMATING THE STUDENT DEMAND FOR LAW SCHOOL
   ADMISSIONS AND THE NEVADA APPLICANT POOL 33

   A. The Resident: Applicant Pool Attending
   Out-of-state Law Schools 34

   B. The Resident Applicant Pool Using the
   Age-Cohort Method 36

   C. The 22 Year Old Age-Cohort Projection
   for Nevada 37

   D. The Regional Applicant Pool 41

5. THE DEMAND FOR LAWYERS IN NEVADA 45

   A. Estimating Demand Using the
   Ratio Method 46

   1. Demand Estimates Using the
      Population-to-Lawyer Ratio 46

   2. Demand Estimates Using the
      Income-to-Lawyer Ratio 49

   B.DEMANDFORLAWYERSUSINGANECONOMETRICMODEL...51

VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS NOTES AND LITERATURE CITED

53 55

•••

111

Page

Table III.l Table IV.1

Table IV.2

Table IV.3 Table V.l

Table V.2

Page 18

LIST OF TABLES

Selected Nevada Economic Trends: 1986 - 1989

Number of Nevada Residents Taking the LSAT
and Applying to at Least One ABA Approved
Law School: 1975-76 Through 1988-89 . . . . 35

Projected Nevada Law School Applicant Pool
Using the 22 Year Old Age-Cohort Method:
1990 - 2000 39

Population in Thousands and Population Growth Rates - The Western States 44

Resident Population and Number of Lawyers:
United States and Nevada; 1970, 1980, and
1985 and Projections for 1990 and 2000 . . 48

Personal Income in Billions of 1972 Dollars and Number of Lawyers: United States and Nevada; 1970, 1980 and Projections for 1990 and 2000

50

iv

LIST OF FIGURES

Page Nevada Population Trend: 1950- 2000 .... 11 Nevada Population Projections: 1989 - 2000 . 22 Nevada Income Projections: 1989 - 2000 . . 23 Nevada Indices: 1989 - 2000 24 Population Forecast for Nevada 25 Population Forecast for Nevada 26 Real Income Forecast for Nevada 27 Per Capita Real Income Forecast for Nevada . 28 Real Gross Regional Product 29

Figure III.l
Figure III.2
Figure III.3
Figure III.4
Figure III.5
Figure III.6
Figure III.7
Figure III.8
Figure III.9
Figure 111.10 Per Capita Real Gross Regional Product

Figure IV.1 Figure IV.2 Figure V.l

for Nevada 30

Projected Nevada Law School Applicant Pool
Using the 22 Year Old Age-Cohert Method:
1990 - 2000 40

Projected Acceptance Rate for a Nevada Law
School Under Alternative Assumptions:
1990 - 2000 42

Demand for Lawyer and Judges: 1969 - 2035 . . 52

V

I. INTRODUCTION

Nevada emerged as the fastest growing state during the last half of the 1980's. As a result, the rapid regional growth that Nevada experienced during the past few years brought with it a rising tide of activity — increased population (with associated increased demand for major expenditure items such as housing), increasing levels of employment, rising levels of income, increased expenditures, and new business opportunities. But regions experiencing rapid growth, such as Nevada, become acclimated to disparate rates of growth between the public and private sectors. That is, the piiblic sector faces increased demands for services as the population increases, but without commensurate increases in resources. Private business

opportunities in this environment grow quickly to meet the needs of the market, while public sector services, such as education, lag behind. This imbalance has been referred to as the unbalanced economic growth thesis. Nevertheless, growth creates the opportunity for new ventures, first in the private sector and subsequently in the public sectors. Thus, one such

opportunity arising with the growth that Nevada has experienced within the last decade is the establishment of a law school.

A. Background

The University of Nevada System Board of Regents comes to the issue of a state-supported school of law again. A short synopsis of the relevant facts on this history are as follows:

1. The Nevada Legislature approved Assembly Concurrent Resolution 48 in 1973 finding that a law school is needed in the University of Nevada System. In addition, the Nevada Legislature found that the best interests of the state were served by the location of the law school in Las Vegas. [1]

2. A feasibility study (Pedrick and Seidman) completed in 1974 recommended that a law school be established. [2]

3. The Board of Regents commissioned the management consultant firm of Cresap, McCormick, and Paget, Inc., Management Consultants to conduct a feasibility study. They concluded in 1980 that a law school (when measured narrowly in terms of benefits and costs) was not justified at that time. [3]

4. A review of the public policy consideration of a Nevada law school in 1985 (Strate and Seidman) concluded that a Nevada law school would provide needed public policy benefits to the profession, the state, and the University community. [4]

5. The University of Nevada System Board of Regents in considering the Old College Nevada School of Law issue re-affirmed in 1987 that if a law school were to be established it would be located at UNLV. [5]

6. The University of Nevada System Board of Regents in 1989 approved the establishment of an advisory committee to investigate the possibility of establishing a law school at UNLV. [6]

The Center for Business and Economic Research was asked to complete an up-to-date feasibility study of the establishment of a law school at UNLV.

2

B. Purpose of Study

A feasibility study offers an economic assessment of a proposed course of action. Such assessments weigh the benefits and costs of a proposed course of action and, upon a comparison of the benefits and costs, enables one to reach a relative assessment. The overriding concern in assessing the feasibility of a law school focuses on two more narrowly fashioned questions: Can a credible program be initiated, and does a financial base exist which is capable of sustaining a credible program of instruction? In a broader context, the social benefits of the pviblic policy consideration of a law school need to be identified and measured. Unfortunately, measurement of these social benefits often proves to be very difficult. This

report addresses the feasibility of the establishment of a law school at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

C. Scope of Study

The scope of a feasibility study rests on establishing facts in conformance with economics fundamentals. But feasibility studies vary in conformance with the specific needs of the issue being studied. As such, this study follows the specific interests and needs of legal education groups and the

informational needs of Nevadans. We find the procedures and guidelines promulgated by the American Bar Association (ABA) for the promotion of legal education useful, particularly, the procedures for securing approval. [7] One might, from the information available, identify the major requirements for inclusion in a law school feasibility study to be the goals of the proposed law school; the location of the proposed law school

in relationship to already established ones; enrollment and financial projections; and analyses of demand and supply for legal services as it relates to the market niche of the proposed law school. It is this set of parameters which makes up the scope of this report.

D. Study Methods and Report Arrangement

This study follows the customarily used methods of a feasibility analysis. We first review the UNLV mission and goals statements for compatibility with a law school. We next investigate the need for a law school, giving consideration to both quantitative measures and public policy issues. We then estimate the number of applicants that a Nevada law school might expect using the method of age-cohort capture. In addition, we use ratio methods and an econometric model to forecast the

increased number of lawyers and members of the judiciary that might be expected with the future growth of the Nevada economy.

4

One aspect of a typical feasibility study, the specification or blueprint of the proposed project, has been given consideration and review by Dean Steven Smith of the Cleveland-Marshall College of Law in another companion report. Dean Smith's study includes an analysis of the findings of this study, a discussion of the nature of a law school for Nevada, and a blueprint for a Nevada school of law. The blueprint covers the five fundamental building blocks: the dean and administration of the school, the faculty and faculty support, the students and student support, the library, and the physical

facilities. Thus, the feasibility study arrangement includes two parts completed in tandem so as to take advantage of the comparative strengths of a consulting legal educator and administrator and of an economic analysis team.

5

II. THE UNIVERSITY MISSION STATEMENT AND THE PROPOSED LAW SCHOOL

Mission and goal statements, a product of the management by objectives approach to management (MBO), is increasingly being used. Accordingly, UNLV rewrote its mission and goals statement as part of its self-study review for the 1990 re-accreditation by the Northwest Association of Schools and Colleges. [8] As a result, UNLV has established the foundation on which a proposed law school would be integrated into the University.

A. UNLV Mission Statement

The key wording of the UNLV Mission Statement (and the essence of the University) is "the generation, preservation, and transmission of knowledge, and serving the public good." [8] In accomplishing its mission the University offers a wide range of undergraduate programs and has increasingly expanded the niomber of graduate programs. As a growing institution in a growing state, a law school at UNLV would be a major addition to the University's graduate programs and would further flesh out the University System's role in serving the state of Nevada.

6

B. Goals of the Proposed New School

Goals delineate measurable objectives founded on an organization's mission statement. Although no specific goals presently exist for the proposed law school, the law school planning process (already underway) has nevertheless begun a process for future goal articulation. The current planning

process builds on UNLV's academic master plan. [8] A goal of this plan includes the establishment of professional programs, to include a professional school of law. After completion of the feasibility study, approval by the UNS Board of Regents,

funding by the Nevada legislature, and the appointment of a Law School Dean, specific goals will be established.

7

III. THE NEED FOR A LAW SCHOOL IN NEVADA

Nevada entered the union with a small population base founded on an ephemeral mining camp economy. These mining camps, born to instant glory, prospered with the richness of the earth, and faced the oblivion of a ghost town status when the mines played out, gave the state an unstable economic base. As a consequence, people moved from camp to camp in a sequential search for their livelihood. Thus, the state's history reflects the vagaries of the fortunes of mining's instability and the economy's lack of adequate diversification well into the 20th century. With the coming of the Colorado River Projects and the building of the Boulder Dam, the establishment of military bases and other national defense installations, the legalization of gaming, and the development of a comprehensive tourism industry, the modern Nevada economy evolved into a far more stable one.

Only three states (Rhode Island, Alaska, and Nevada) do not currently have a law school within the state. The presence of a law school within boundaries of the 47 states reflects either in part or sum the following factors: (1) a sufficiently sizeable population demanding legal education lives within each state; (2) a sufficiently productive economy needing legal services; or (3) a public commitment to preserving and enhancing political and legal institutions. Thus we turn to a consideration of a

8

set of economic, demographic, and public policy issues associated with the need for establishing a law school in Nevada.

A. Minimum State Population Size For a Law School

The minimum size of a state's population necessary for crossing the threshold for establishing a law school must be rather small since the smallest state, Wyoming, has had a law school since 1920 when its population stood far short of its current level of 475,000 (as of 1989). [10] Population alone seems an inadequate criterion for evaluating the feasibility of a law school. Indeed, seven states smaller than Nevada have a

law school. Thus, evidence suggests that the economic-political-social structure of the state provides the linchpin in explaining the need for a law school, rather than a singular consideration of population size alone.

Nevada ranks 40th among the states in terms of population, while Phode Island ranks 43rd and Alaska ranks 49th. [10] Since Rhode Island also ranks as the smallest state in area (easily fitting within the boundaries of most Nevada counties), the state's lack of a law school does not present a major problem. One finds a nximber of law schools conveniently located nearby, including some of the nation's most prestigious law schools. On the other hand, the remoteness and small size of Alaska has been

9

cited as a rationale for the lack of a law school within the state. In this case, the diseconomies associated with a law school in a small population seem apparent. Nevertheless, Wyoming has a similar remoteness (small population density), a small population base, but it has had a law school at the University of Wyoming since 1920. [11]

B. Nevada's Population Growth Since 1950

The modern era of the Nevada economy began in the post-World War II period. The return from a war-based economy brought new opportunities for Nevada. The rising tide of economic activity brought increased levels of population. Setting 1950 as a base, the population of Nevada grew at a compound rate of 5.0 percent over the 39 year period (1950 - 1989). See Figure III.l.

C. Nevada's Economic Growth

Nevada's strong rate of population growth over the past forty years gives one reason to believe that the conditions giving rise to this growth mirror fundamentals that portend future growth. The growth process (difficult to initiate, subject to stagnation after lengthy periods, and more likely to face reversals from unplanned events) generally proves supple to

10

Figure 111.1
NEVADA POPULATION TREND: 1950 - 2000

U.l'^^111IIIIIII 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YEAR
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

growth impediments. Thus, once an economy passes through the take-off phase of development (having energized the entrepreneurial environment and cleared encumbrances to change) there is a marked tendency for growth to continue over long periods. In many cases these tides in the affairs of women and men may last from 75 to 100 years. [12] Examples of regional economic growth waves include Silicon Valley for computer products and Nevada for tourism services. Since Nevada's economy has passed the take—off phase and entered the growth stage, one might reasonably expect continued growth before reaching maturation.

Some discussion of the nature of the growth curve process gives further insights as to the future growth we anticipate and the subsequent maturation of the Nevada economy we "know will ultimately occur. The growth process begins with the opening of new markets, the development of new products and services, new production processes, new discoveries and new ways of doing

things. The initial change, which finds a supportive environment, causes a cascading effect of change which transmits confidence and energy, thus creating a take-off phase which will be followed by long periods of growth. Ultimately, economic gains will plant the seeds of inefficiency — maturation will occur. As a consequence the rate of growth will slow as new products, new markets, and more efficient production and management take place elsewhere. The change will bring

competition that supplants the region's earlier comparative 12

trade advantages. Such examples of this maturation process may

be found in the United States' steel and automobile industries.

We might, therefore, note our conclusion that Nevada's gaming

and tourism sector has passed a take-off period and has

demonstrated in its more recent investments the strength of its growth.

One does not know for certain the time life of the second phase of development — the growth phase. Research only points

to the overall shape of the growth curve and leaves the timing of such phases pretty much an unsettled issue. [12] This issue

(the length and strength of the current phase of Nevada's economy) shapes the options one may want to take.

Some might point to the continued encroachment of other states with increasingly liberal gaming laws (which offers increasing competition to Nevada businesses) as indications of the maturation and future slower growth for Nevada's economy. But Nevada has not experienced a slowdown. The development of new markets and new products has re-invigorated optimism in the economic future of Nevada. One finds the current rate of investment as evidence indicative of Nevada's economic strength

and long-term vitality. As a result, one might then view the establishment of a law school as one of many efforts to sustain the quality of life without foreclosing future opportunities for the state.

Should economic maturation occur in our gaming-dependent economy, current efforts to diversify the state's economy offer

13

Nevadans "the capability of bracing themselves against possible future economic upheaval. An important aspect of this diversification (technology transfer) depends on the legal environment to nurture innovation and defend the interests of inventors and innovators, as well as to protect the economic and political interests of our state. Thus, the presence of a law school within the state of Nevada would contribute to this important effort.

We do not know the future with certainty; however, we can identify a few major relationships for decision-making regarding the establishment of a law school. A few of these relationships include the following:

1. A growing economy creates additional demands for legal services, and therefore a derived demand for legal educational services.

2. Growth also creates a demand for greater specialization in legal training and education.

3. An expanding economy increases the likelihood of the availability of resources to support legal education.

4. Students (as well as their parents) living in a growing state will tend to have more money available.

5. More money will be available to help finance student education.

6. More money for gifts and grants will also be available to support a law school.

Thus, a growing economy provides the necessary strength for the establishment and maintenance of a viable law school.

14

Projecting demographic trends remains at best a difficult task. Asking one to further project the demand for law school admissions only adds additional complicating requirements. Nevertheless, the complexity of such activities only places in greater relief the importance of focusing on the feasibility of the proposed law school. Before we undertake estimating the relationship between economic and demographic factors in the demand for law school education, we turn to a discussion of the key attributes of the future of the Nevada economy.

D. Nevada's Economic Trends and Forecasts

The recent growth of the Nevada economy has showed unsurpassed vigor. One might reasonably expect that comments based upon such a record might also be impressive, and they are [13]:

Nevada is the number one state in the nation for business climate. Top ranked Las Vegas — and surrounding Clark

County — are exploding.

Inc. Magazine

Nevada, spurred by Clark County's rapid growth, enters 1990 as the fastest growing state in the nation.

U.S. Census Bureau Residents in only four states are taxed less than Nevadans.

Nevada — A "tax haven."

15

Money Magazine

Nevada was number one nationally in job growth. Economy watchers are beginning to wonder if the economic statistics from the Silver State have been injected with steroids.

The Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast

Las Vegas, with a flourishing tourism industry and a burgeoning trade catering to retirees, is the hottest game going in the Mountain West right now.

The Washington Post

The employment rate shows Nevada as one of the bright spots in the U.S. today.

Economic Report
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

With 101 fast-growing companies, Nevada is the most entrepreneurial state in the United States.

Inc. Magazine

Las Vegas ranks number 30 in a survey of America's 300 best places to live; an impressive leap over last year's rating of 180.

Money Magazine

Las Vegas is the hottest housing market on a per capita basis.

U.S. Housing Markets

Nevada banks are among the nation's top performing of the year.

Sheshunoff and Company

Nevada ranks fourth in manufacturing climate of the 21 states in their category.

Grant Thorton National C.P.A. Firm

The University of Nevada, Las Vegas is one of the top up-and-coming universities in the West.

U.S. News & World Report 16

1. Svunmary Economic Indicators

One may easily glean the recent record of Nevada's robust economic expansion from the summary economic indicators shown in Table III.l. While year-to-year variations occur, and should be expected, one easily concludes that Nevada's key indicators show that the state has grown at rapid rates, in fact, decidedly better than the national economy.

2. Personal Income Estimates

Personal income represents one of the most useful data series published by the U.S. Commerce Department. Personal income measures the general purchasing power of a region, that is, the ability of its citizens to buy goods and services. Nevada ranks among those states with higher levels of personal income. Moreover, recent data shows the rate of growth in personal income for Nevada ranks among the highest. Nevada's personal income average rate of compound growth (11.2 percent) over the period 1986 to 1989 exceeds the 7.6 percent rate for the nation. In 1988 Nevada ranked 11th among the states in terms of the rank in per capita personal income measured in constant dollars, and is expected to hold this favorable rank in the years ahead. [14] Thus, Nevada's higher than average

17

1986
(Yo CHANGE

1987
(^ CHANGE

($000,000) ($000,000)

14,932 13,121 8.2 5.4

16,473 14,032 10.3 6.9

Housing Permits

15,809 967 20.4 2.8

5.9

1988 c
YoCHANGE 12.2 8.6

18,476 15,232 1989 20,912 16,557

GYoCHANGE 13.2 8.7

29,484
85.7 4.8

Personal Income

Real Personal Income

Wage &

Salary Employment (OOO's)

468.1 4.9

500.2 6.9

537.8 7.5

582.3 8.3

Retail Sales

($000,000)

9,164 9.3

10,224 11.6

11,771 15.1

12,335 4.8

Gaming

Revenues ($000,000)

3,482 5.1

3,925 12.7

4,270 8.8

4,589 7.5

Unem­ Population ployment (OOO's) Rate (%)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Nevada Employment Security Department; Nevada State Gaming Board; and U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Table III.1
Selected Nevada Economic Trends: 1986-1989

15,877
0.4 4

29,206
0.09 5.4

1,006 6.3

1,054 5.2

1,111 5.2

ranking among the states in personal income gives the state more possibilities to consider in its private and public sector decisions than states with lower income levels.

Using one's current position as a point of reference may prove to be a mistake when moving at a fast pace. To report current economic and demographic parameters will surely inadequately capture the relevant conditions for a developing law school. For example, the size of the economy doubles in slightly more than 14 years when a population grows at a five percent rate. Even at a slower three percent growth rate the doubling time is only 24 years.

3. A Nevada Economic - Demographic Model

We undertook to project the future of Nevada's economy using an econometric model. [19] We believe the economic and demographic forecasts offer a more objective basis for evaluation than current or past data. The need for a law school (using the criteria of the size of the economy and the population) should reflect the future demands and the future needs of both the economy and the population.

The mathematical equations comprising the econometric model are themselves quite complex; nevertheless, the ideas underpinning the model remain simple. Historical data for Nevada and the United States enables analysts to determine structural relationships, such as input-output coefficients.

19

Thus, as the national economy grows, (as predicted from modeling research efforts for the national economy) one may gauge the

impacts on the local economy. As long as the structural relations hold between the two economies, one has a tool for ^o^®cjasting that translates into an optimistic Nevada outlook.

4. Forecasts

We divided the projections for Nevada's future into two sets. The first set covers the period 1989 (the model ends with 1987 data and begins the forecasts for 1989) to the year 2000. The second set of projections covers the long-term with forecasts extending to the year 2035.

Since the model does not include data from the last three years of Nevada's economic boom, we might note that these forecasts are conservative. Conservative forecasts and interpretation serve our long-term interests, questions, and concerns in evaluating the feasibility of the proposed law school.

The projections presented (starting on page 22) are as follows:

A. Projection Set 1 (1989 - 2000)

1. Figure III.2 — Nevada Population Projections: 1989 - 2000

2. Figure III.3 — Nevada Income Projections: 1989 - 2000

3. Figure III.4 — Nevada Indices: 1989 - 2000 20

B. Projection Set 2 (1989 - 2035)

1. Figure III.5

2. Figure III.6

3. Figure III.7

4. Figure III.8

   Figure III.9

— Population Forecasts for Nevada — Employment Forecasts for Nevada — Real Income Forecasts for Nevada — Per Capita Real Income Forecasts

for Nevada
— Real Gross Regional Product for

Nevada
6. Figure III.10 — Per Capita Real Gross Regional

Product for Nevada E. Public Policy Needs

The needs for a law school, while numerous and varied, may be separated into two groups — one group includes needs which may be quantified and the other group includes needs of a more siabjective nature, that is, not easily quantifiable. The svibjective needs fall under the rubric of public policy considerations. [15] While the quantitative needs for a law school invariably get included in the benefit calculations of a feasibility study, the public policy needs are at best only noted. Public policy needs (which may be very important) are sufficiently difficult to measure (requiring analysis using techniques on the cutting-edge of analysis) such that quantification of these needs would prove to be cost prohibitive in most law school feasibility studies. Thus, our analysis of two key public policy issues (Nevada's legal environment and its legal profession) will be considered using a qualitative framework.

21

Year Population

1.8

1.7 -

1.6 -

i 1.5- co

Is

Q.
1.3 -

1.2 -

1.1 1 1 1 L ^ I 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Figure III.2

Nevada Population Projections 1989-2000

1989 1,154,194
1990 1,219,749
1991 1,285,563
1992 1,346,400 oc 1993 1,414,316

1994 1,476,742 1996 1,530,347 1996 1,575,869 1997 1,624,060 1998 1,673,636 1999 1,716,595 2000 1,750,863

Z3 CL o

1.4 -

CO

Year
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

Figure III.3

Nevada Income Projections 1989-2000

27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000

a> 23,000

c oc

co

a

Real

Personal Year Income

1989. 1989  $14,678

1990. 1990  $15,558

1991. 1991  $16,494

1992. 1992  $17,652

1993. 1993  $18,720

1994. 1994  $19,556

1995. 1995  $20,449 Q.

1996. 1996  $21,536

1997. 1997  $22,787

1998. 1998  $23,930

1999. 1999  $24,763

2000. 2000  $25,876

1989 1991
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

Q. ca

O

m 0)

cr

1993 1995 Year

1997 1999

Real
Personal
Income Population

Year Index Index 1989 100.000 100.000 1990 105.994 105.680 1991 112.369 111.382 1992 120.258 116.653 1993 127.537 122.537 1994 133.230 127.946 1995 139.315 132.590 1996 146.718 136.534 1997 155.241 140.709 1998 163.026 145.005 1999 168.706 148.727 2000 176.284 151.696

Real Personal

Income

Figure III.4

Nevada Indices: 1989 - 2000 1989 = 100

X

(U • cO

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Year
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

Population

Years

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

Figure III.5

0)

Q. O 0)

OT C o

1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1

1

Q.

0.9 O

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

Figure III.6

Employment Forecast for Nevada

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV,

w eg

Qo

/

PrnjPf^tPH

o> o> T— H—

o (0

co 1= m

90 80 - 70

60 50 -

40

Figure III.7

Real Income Forecast for Nevada 1969-2035

30 20 10

0
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

^Actual^^^^X

111.111 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029

Years

Figure III.8
Per Capita Real Income Forecast for Nevada

1969 - 2035

Years
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

Figure III.9

Real Gross Regional Product Forecast for Nevada 1lU

100 - 90 - 80 - 70 - 60 - 50 - 40 -

30 20 10

0

Years
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research,

College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

Actual

^ /

Projected

^ X

11 11——11 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029

Figure 111.10
Per Capita Real Gross Regional Product For Nevada

36,000 35,000 34,000 - 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 - 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000

23,000

22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000

Projected

^ X

Actual

1969 1979

—1 1 1 1

1989 1999 2009 2019 2029

Years

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

1. Serving Nevada's Legal Environment

World events during 1990 vividly remind one that the United States (with a short history — but the longest continuous democracy) rests upon the principle of the rule of law rather than the rule of man. Our laws and legal institutions (the bedrock of our freedoms) need continuous attention to keep abreast of the increasing complexities of a changing environment. Reliance upon other states for legal education and upon the legal expertise of a law school outside of Nevada reveals Nevada's weakness in fulfilling its obligation to serve the needs of Nevadans for nurturing our democratic heritage.

Our federal system calls for participation by each state in establishing laws and a legal environment to accommodate local circumstances. Typically, a state's law school performs in a significant way this function. As a result, the staffs of the Legislative Counsel, the Attorney General's Office, and the Nevada Supreme Court have taken on this role in Nevada in place of a law school. But these organizations have only limited time available from their primary mission to further legal research. As a result, they have performed comprehensive legal reviews on an intermittent basis. [3, p.IV-22 and 23.] Therefore, Nevada's arrangement represents "at best, an inadequate patchwork substitute for the continuing attention a collective group of legal scholars can provide Nevada's legal system."

[2, p.2141.]

31

2. Supporting the Legal Profession

Law schools contribute to the improvement of the legal profession. One obvious way in which a law school can contribute is through participation in continuing professional programs. Law school faculty may offer programs, or act as resource persons, particularly in those areas of increasing specialization. In addition, Nevada's increasing pace of future economic development will result in an environment of increased legal development. Currently, no law school fully meets the needs of Nevada to prepare and enhance further the training of lawyers in areas of special concern to Nevada, for example, water, mining, nuclear waste, and gaming [4, p.99] These circumstances afford significant opportunities for a law school to contribute to the Nevada legal profession.

32

IV. ESTIMATING THE STUDENT DEMAND FOR LAW SCHOOL ADMISSIONS AND THE NEVADA APPLICANT POOL

The UNS Board of Regents Study of 10 years ago reached its conclusions assuming the following national trends; (1) law school enrollments are leveling off, (2) the number of unfilled law school seats is increasing, and (3) the nvimber of law school applicants is projected to decline. [3, p.IV-2] But trends and conditions since completion of the last feasibility study have changed. For one, the number of law school applicants at ABA approved law schools now trends upward, having increased by 36.8 percent from 1985-1986 to 1988-1989. [16] In addition, the number of applicants to date (June 1990) exceeds the number of applicants one year ago by 6.6 percent. [16] Today, we find increased interest in legal education.

The Nevada pool of interested applicants for law school admissions comes from two groups — the resident pool (Nevadans) and the non-resident pool (out-of-state residents). We now turn to review the available information for both of these groups, to consider the factors that relate to the admissions pattern of each, and to estimate the number of applicants that the proposed law school might reasonably expect to receive.

33

A. The Resident Applicant Pool Attending Out-of-state Law Schools

Each year* Nevada students go out—of—state to receive an education in the legal field. As Nevada has grown and with the in-state option of the Old College Nevada School of Law no longer available, increasing numbers of Nevadans have gone to out-of-state law schools. No doubt, the number of Nevada students attending law school would be greater if there was an in-state law school.

One measure of the historical demand for a legal education is the nvimber of Nevadans taking the LSAT. The number of Nevada residents taking the LSAT and applying to at least one ABA approved law school between the years 1975 and 1985 ranged between 135 and 233. (See Table IV.1) In more recent years, as interest in law as a field of study increased and as the number of Nevadans in the prime age categories for attending law school increased, the size of the law school applicant pool has also increased. Between (1983-1984) and (1988-1989) the number of Nevadans taking the LSAT increased 72.6 percent — a substantial upswing for a period of only five years.

A number of key points give one reason to believe that historical statistics might underestimate the future applicant pool. These include the important point than no ABA accredited law school has ever operated in Nevada. Without a resident school of law the opportunities for a legal education have been

34

Academic Number of Year Students

1975-76 155 1976-77 144 1977-78 187 1978-79 142 1979-80 151 1980-81 160 1981-82 163 1982-83 157 1983-84 135 1984-85 162

1985-86 178 1986-87 192 1987-88 206 1988-89 233

240 230 220 210

•o 200

Table IV-1

Number of Nevada Residents Taking the LSAT and applying to at least one ABA approved Law School

z

160 150 140 130

CO

c

CD

CO 190

n

E 170

H—

n
<D 180

1975-76 through 1988-89

1977 1979
Source: Law School Admission Services, Inc. and the Educational Testing Services.

1981 1983 1985 Academic Year

1987 1989

more limited for Nevadans than for students in other states. In addition, the number of Nevadans attending ABA accredited schools cited does not include individuals who attended the Old College Nevada School of Law (an unaccredited ABA institution which operated between 1981 and 1988). As reported by the Old College Nevada School of Law, approximately 63 students per year applied during the first five years of this unaccredited program, even though the school had a tenuous basis for sustained operations. [17]

B. Resident Applicant Pool Using the Age-Cohort Method

One may get another view of what the admissions enrollment pattern might be by applying the age-cohort method of demographic analysis. Typically, most students enter law school after completion of the bachelor's degree at the age of 22 years. Thus, this method identifies the admissions applicant pool as the number of 22 year olds.

The age-cohort method places in even greater relief the size of the population for which an accredited law school might be expected to attract. Moreover, one might expect this approach to more accurately capture the size of the relevant law school applicant pool as the size of the state's population grows. Typically, the student entering law school has just completed a bachelor's degree and is 22 years of age. Thus, law schools

36

cjustomarily use forecastis of this age—cohort in completing their feasibility studies. On the other hand, consideration of only

this age-cohort may give a less than adequate basis for Nevada. In particular, we know that both UNR and UNLV have a relatively large percentage of students outside the traditional college age of 18 to 22 years. The average college-going population for these universities exceeds 24 years of age. [18] We analyzed alternative assumptions with respect to the average age of the law school applicant, but we found no significant difference in

the estimated size of the applicant pool under these alternative assumptions. Therefore, we present here estimates of the applicant pool using the 22 year old age-cohort method generally applied in law school feasibility studies.

C. The 22 Year Old Age-Cohort Projections for Nevada

The usual approach for estimating the likely applicant pool first begins with projecting the number of people in the state who will be 22 years of age, and then next applies an observed capture ratio. By capture ratio we refer to the fraction of the state's population in the age-cohort who have, on average, been admitted to law school. However, the capture ratio has varied over time in response to the ebb and tide of career selection preferences and fundamental economic trends. We used capture

rates over a range from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent, including

37

the nationally observed range of 1.75 to 2.09 percent. The resulting Nevada law school applicant pool using these assumptions may be found in Table IV-2.

The estimated applicant pool ranges from a low of 242 (assuming a 1.5 percent capture rate) to a high of 403 (assuming a 2.5 percent capture rate) for 1990. Thus, one might reasonably expect the applicant pool by the end of the decade (when maturation would begin for a new law school) to range from 375 to 624. See Figure IV-1.

The evidence we present reflects a wide range of capture ratios. The lowest national rate has been 1.75 percent. Even if Nevada's capture rate were at 1.5 percent, one might conclude that there already exists a sufficient niimber of willing applicants to ensure an entering class of 100 students per year with an acceptance rate of less than 50 percent. The most recent national capture rate of 2.09 (for 1988) reflects increasing interest in legal education and suggests that a more than sufficient applicant pool exists for a Nevada law school. Thus, one might reasonably expect that Nevada could justify establishing a law school.

The traditional method of estimating the applicant pool represents only an approximation because of the wide range of ages that law schools actually draw from when admitting students. That is, the size of the population between the ages of 22 and 45 will grow in the years ahead. We already know from

38

Table IV- 2

Projected Nevada Law School Applicant Pool Using the 22 Year Old Age-Cohort Method: 1990 - 2000

Capture Ratio Assumption (Percent)

Year
1990 242 282 1991 253 295 1992 264 309 1993 276 322 1994 288 336 1995 300 350 1996 313 365 1997 326 380 1998 340 396

1999 353 412 2000 366 427

Note: (*) National capture rates have ranged from 1.75 to 2.09 percent

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

39

1.50 1.7^

2.00
323 337
337 352
353 368 397 368
384 402
400 418 450 417 436 469 435 454 489

2.09* 2.25
363 403

385

379 422 441 414 461 432 480 500 521 544 566 589 549 610

453 473 510 471 492 530 488 510

2.50

650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200

High Estimate

Figure IV-1
Projected Nevada Law School Applicant Pool Using

the 22 Year Old Age-Cohort Method: 1990 - 2000

1990 1992 1994 1996 Year

Note; The high estimate assumes a 2.5 percent capture rate; and the low estimate assumes a 1.5 percent capture rate. Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

_L

Low Estimate

1998 2000

the national age profile data the nxmber of individuals who will enter these age-cohorts in the years ahead. The U.S. Bureau of the Census has projected a cumulative increase in the population of individuals between the ages of 25 and 44. [14, p.16] Thus, the pool of prospective students is likely to exceed the one used in the traditional estimation method.

An applicant pool above 200 per year and an entering class of 100 per year results in acceptance ratios of less than 50 percent. Acceptance ratios of these levels suggest that a Nevada law school might aspire to a higher than usual quality level for a newly established school. The issue of the desired size of the proposed law school is addressed by Dean Smith's study. Nonetheless, our findings suggest that the expected growth of Nevada portends that a law school of increasing c[uality should be expected if the size of the law school remained small. We show in Figure IV-2 a range of acceptance ratios that might be expected over a range of capture rate

assumptions.

D. The Regional Applicant Pool

The proposed law school's planning efforts have focused on Nevadans' needs for legal education. But in fact, students cross state borders to attend educational institutions in other states. One should expect a continuation in this migration. Projected population growth in neighboring states will also

41

46 44

42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20

18

16 14

Figure IV-2

Projected Acceptance Rate for a Nevada Law School Under Alternative Assumptions: 1990 - 2000

High Rates

Note. Assume acceptance of 100 applicants per year for the number of applicants given in Table IV-1 Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

provide an additional source of students, thus, increasing the pool of applicants in Nevada.

As time goes on, the growth of neighboring states will bring pressure for fewer out-of-state admissions at other state universities to be offered to Nevada residents. In this way the growth of the region's population, that is, the states that border on Nevada (Arizona, California, Idaho, Oregon, and Utah), will reduce the number of law school seats available for Nevadans. Only private universities with higher tuition costs can be expected to avoid these pressures. Thus, we expect

continued and increasing demand by Nevadans for legal education within their own state.

Just as Nevadans have gone to other states to receive their legal education, students in neighboring states will avail themselves of the opportunity to attend a law school in Nevada. See Table IV-3 for comparative population estimates for states in the Western region. The Nevada applicant pool of students from other states is likely to be small initially, primarily of interest as a secondary source. But this source will become increasingly significant as the school becomes established, and its high quality and reputation are affirmed. We have not included any out-of-state applicants in reaching conclusions about a likely applicant pool for the proposed Nevada law

school.

43

State Nevada

Alaska Arizona California Utah
New Mexico Colorado Washington Idaho Oregon Montana Wyoming

1970 489

303 1,755 19,971 1,059 1,017 2,210 3,413 713 2,092 694 332

Population

1980 800

402 2,718 23,668 1,461 1,303 2,890 4,132 944 2,633 787 470

1988 1,054

524 3,489 28,314 1,690 1,507 3,301 4,648 1,003 2,767 805 479

1970-80 63.8

32.8 53.1 18.5 37.9 28.1 30.8 21.1 32.4 25.9 13.1 41.3

1990, p.20.

Growth Rates Percentage Change

Annual 1980-88 Annual

4.9 31.8

2.8 30.4
4.4 28.4 3.1

Table IV-3
Population In Thousands and Population Growth Rates in the Western States

Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States.

1.7 19.6 3.2 15.7

2.2

1.8 15.7 1.8 14.2 1.7 12.5 1.5 6.3 0.7 2.3 5.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 0.3 3.5 1.9 0.2

2.5 2.7 1.9 2.8

3.4

3.3

V. THE DEMAND FOR LAWYERS IN NEVADA

The demand for legal education signals more than the demand for practicing attorneys; it also reflects the need for members of the judiciary, and non-practicing lawyers in business, such as, gaming, real estate, and banking. The demand for legal training by non-practicing lawyers constitutes a large component of the overall demand for legal education. Moreover, this component of demand is not always easy to estimate. Legal

training has traditionally been a desired educational background for a wide-range of non-legal occupations, professions, and jobs. Estimating this component of the demand for legal education proves most difficult to measure and, no doubt, absorbs a good portion of the periodic over-supply (a condition that occurs when labor supply exceeds demand). Thus, one cannot estimate the demand for law school education only in terms of the number of practicing attorneys in the population.

Periods of over-supply occur in free market economies for specific labor categories. Understandably, the legal professions have from time to time suffered the shortcomings of an over-supply situation. However, the general nature of a legal education has been a good preparation for entry into other fruitful careers. Unlike other educational programs of a more limited scope, the careers of persons trained in law often easily evolve to positions in other fields, should they choose; versatility makes transitions both easier and more successful

45

"than for fhose educated in other fields. The versatility issue

becomes more important as individuals increase the number of

separate careers they pursue during their working years. Thus,

the breadth and general applicability of a legal education

generates a supply of graduates at times which may seem as

excess, but which the economy assimilates for reasons other than legal needs.

A. Estimating Demand Using the Ratio Method

The simplest method for estimating the future demand for lawyers rests on assuming that the current ratio of the number of lawyers-to-population remains unchanged in the future. Multiplying the ratio by the projected future population yields an estimate of the future number of lawyers and members of the judiciary.

Since demands for legal services increase with both the size of the population and the increasing complexity of economic activity, one may want to adjust the simple ratio method. One adjustment procedure (the lawyer-to-income ratio) will be considered later. Yet another way of estimating the demand is

to use methods more sophisticated than the simple ratio method. 1. Demand Estimates Using the Population-to-Lawyer Ratio

The ratio of the number of people-per-lawyer in Nevada 46

exceeds the same ratio for the United States in 1970 and 1980. See Table V-1. In addition, the ratio over time shows a pronounced decline from 626:1 in 1970 to 333:1 in 1990 (P^O!i®ctted) for the United States. Nevada also shows the same downward trend.

We projected the future demand for lawyers by usin^ three alternative ratio assumptions. These estimating assumptions are as follows:

1. The 1990 Unites States ratio (333:1).

2. The 1985 Nevada ratio (434:1).

3. An in-between estimate (375:1).

These ratios are then multiplied by the projected Nevada population for the year 2000 (1,750,863) to yield three estimates of the demand for Nevada lawyers. Under these three alternatives, estimates of the demand for additional lawyers range from 1,224 to 1,596. On the other hand, if the Nevada ratio over the 1990 to 2000 period should drop from 434:1 to 333:1 (a realistic assumption given the historical downward trend), the demand increases by 2,448. Under the latter assumption one would project an annual increase of 204, a demand in excess of the supply one might reasonably expect for a small sized Nevada law school.

47

Population 1970 203,302,000 1980 226,546,000 1985 239,279,000

Projections
1990 249,657,000

2000 267,747,000

Lawyers 324,818 542,205 655,191

750,000

Pop. 1:626 1:418 1:365

1:333

Popuiation 489,000 800,493 988,619

1,219,749

1,750,863

Table V-1
Resident Population and Number of Lawyers: United States

1970,1980, and 1985 and Projections for 1990 and 2000 United States

and Nevada;

Nevada

Number of Lawyers

739 1,771 2,276

[3,662 [3,253 [2,810

[5,258 [4,669 [4,034

Number of Lawyer/

Lawyer/ Pop.

1:662 1:452 1:434

1:333] 1:375] 1:434]

1:333] 1:375] 1:434]

Source: United States Bureau of the Census,
(110 th edition). Table 26, Table 29, Table 310; and Center for Business and Economic Research,UNLV.

Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1990.

2. DemandEs'tima'tesUsing"theIncome—to—Lawyer*Ratio

The demand for lawyers increases with the increasing complexities of the modern American economy. This complexity (dependent on niimerous factors) can be approximated by personal income as a proxy measure. Nevada currently ranks 11th among the states in per capita personal income. [14, p. xviii.] Thus, one might reasonably expect that in terms of income alone that Nevada has a greater than average demand for lawyers.

The income ratio approach to estimating demand suggests a rising demand in the next decade. We find the number of lawyers per billion dollars of total personal income (measured in constant dollars) increasing over the historical period. However, the number of Nevada lawyers per billion dollars of income falls short of the national average, suggesting a slower rate of growth. See Table V-2.

Projected growth in Nevada personal income suggests continued growth in the demand for lawyers. If the observed 1980 Nevada ratio of 361 lawyers per billion dollars of personal income held over the decade of the 1990's, we estimate an increase in demand of 1,011. A movement of the Nevada ratio to the national ratio would result in an increase of 2,081. An average estimate of 414 lawyers per billion dollars of personal income for the year 2000 (below the 1990 United States estimate of 468) would yield an increase of 1,541 over the 10 year

49

Table V-2

Personal Income In Billions of 1972 Dollars and Number of Lawyers: United States and Nevada; 1970,1980 and Projections for 1990 and 2000

Personal Income 1970 819.1 1980 1,204.9

Projections
1990 1,603.3

2000 1,970.9

United States

Number
of Lawvers Lavwer/lncome

324,818 369:1 542,205 450:1

750,000 468:1

Nevada

Personal Number Income of Lawvers

2.5 739 4.9 1771

7.2 [2,599 [2,981 [3,307

Lavwer/lncome 296:1 361:1

361:1] 414:1] 468:1]

361:1] 414:1] 468:1]

— 10.0

[3,610 [4,140 [4,680

Source: United States Bureau of tfie Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States. 1986 (106th edition). Table 305, Table 734.

period, or 128 per year. We believe the 128 to 174 additional lawyers per year range seems most appropriate using the income-to-lawyer ratio method in light of Nevada's current economic development.

B. Demand for Lawyers Using an Econometric Model

We used an econometric model to project the demand for Nevada lawyers and judges. [19] While sophisticated in nature and beyond the scope of our presentation here, an econometric model encapsulates the numerous linkages and feedbacks within

the economy. The model's refinements include accounting for the region's relative wage influences, purchasing coefficients, regional shares, relative production costs, relative economic opportunities, and migration.

We projected a continuation of the historical trends of the relationship between the Nevada economies (we used a five sector linked model for Nevada) and the United states. This baseline forecast uses information prior to 1988 (the last year for which income data is available). We made projections to the year 2035. [20] The projected demand for lawyers and members of the judiciary is shown in Figure V-1. The model projects an increase of 135 lawyers and judges per year under the conservative economic assumptions used.

51

9-

0) 8 -

O: (D

Figure V-1

Projected

^7

CL «•— 6

O

2 1-

Actual

^ y

0,11—1.—
1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029

Year
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, College of Business and Economics, UNLV.

Thousands Cd Oi

VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

We find persuasive evidence that sufficient demand for legal education and for legal public policy services currently exists to justify establishing a law school in Nevada. The conclusions we reach and a summary of the salient facts are as follows;

1. Nevada is large enough to support a law school.

1. Nevada's population growth projections in 1980 (U.S. Bureau of Census) for 1990 fell about 50 percent below

   the actual 1990 level for Nevada.

2. Nevada's population base has grown significantly since the completion of the last UNS Board of Regents law school feasibility study in 1980.

3. Nevada ranks 40th in the nation in state population.

4. Seven states with a smaller population than Nevada have a law school.

5. Nevada ranks 11th in the nation in per capita personal income.

6. Thirty-seven states with less per capita personal income than Nevada have a law school.

2. The number of Nevada law school applicants exceeds the minimum for establishing a quality Nevada law school.

1. We project over 250 Nevada applicants per year for law school admissions during the 1990's.

2. We project an acceptance rate for admissions to the proposed Nevada law school consistent with the development of a quality program.

   53

VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (CONTINUED)

3. The projected future demand for lawyers in Nevada exceeds

the expected number of ^^^^uates from the proposed law school.

1. We project on average an annual increase of 135 lawyers and members of the judiciary (assuming conservative future economic conditions) using an econometric model.

2. We project on average an increase for lawyers and members of the judiciary from 128 to 174 per year using the lawyer-to-income ratio method.

3. We project on average an increase for lawyers and members of the judiciary of 204 per year using the lawyer-to-population ratio method.

4. The blueprint for a Nevada law school envisions a graduating class of about 100.

5. The proposed law school balances the expected supply increases with expected increases in the demand for lawyers and members of the judiciary.

4. A Nevada law school would support the state's efforts to enhance its legal environment and democratic institutions.

1. Nevada laws and legal institutions need continuous attention to keep abreast with changes.

2. Nevada's current arrangement is an inadequate patchwork for meeting the state's legal and public policy needs.

5. Reliance on out-of-state law schools to educate Nevadans represents a less than desirable solution.

1. The needs of other states' students may be given prior consideration to the needs of Nevada students.

2. Out-of-state law schools have no vested interest in addressing Nevada legal issues, for example, nuclear waste or gaming.

3. One may estimate that Nevadans attending out-of-state law schools currently spend 10 to 11 million dollars per year that otherwise would be spent in Nevada.

   54

[1] [2]

[3] [4]

[5] [6] [7]

[8] [9]

[10]

[11]

NOTES AND LITERATURE CITED

Assembly Concurrent Resolution 48, now Vol. 2, 1973 Statutes of Nevada, file no. 89.

Pedrick and Seidman, "Law School Study for the University of Nevada, Las Vegas," Southwestern Nevada Law Review. Vol. 10 (Special Issue, 1978), pp. 2115-2220.

Board of Regents. Universitv of Nevada Svstem. Law School Feasibility Study, a report of the firm Cresap, McCormick, and Paget, Inc., (June, 1980).

Strate and Seidman, "Public Policy Considerations Supporting a Nevada Law School," Southwestern Universitv Law Review. Vol. 15, No. 1 (1985, pp. 91-100).

UNS Board of Regents Minutes. UNS Board of Regents Minutes.

Rule 5 of the Rules of Procedure for Approval of Law Schools by the American Bar Association.

Universitv of Nevada. Las Veaas. Self-Studv Report. 1990. p.7.

Law School Admissions Council/Law School Admission Services, The Official Guide to U.S. Law Schools. 1990-91, pp. 50-57.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States. 1990. 110th edition (Washington, D.C., 1990), p. xii.

See The Official Guide to U.S. Law Schools. 1990-91. p. 406.

[12] See Forrester, The Life Cvcle of Economic Development (Cambridge, Massachusetts; Wright Allen Press, 1973) and Mager, The Kondratieff Waves (New York, New York: Praeger, 1987).

[13] Las Vegas Review Journal, Nevada Development Authority, and First Interstate Bank of Nevada, NA, Las Veaas Perspective. 1990. p.3.

[14] See Statistical Abstract of the United States. 1990. p. xvii.

55

NOTES AND LITERATURE CITED (CONTINUED)

[15] The Strate and Seidman papez* [4] gives a review of hhe public policy attributes of a Nevada law school.

Law Service Report (May-June, 1989), p. 19; and Law Ser-yice Report (May - June, 1990) P. 15.

17. [17]  Feasibilitv Studv of the Nevada School of Law, Old College, (September, 1986).

18. [18]  See the institutional reports for both UNR and UNLV.

19. [19]  R. Keith Schwer and Thomas M. Carroll, "Nevada Regional Models: Forecasting and Simulations," Nevada Review of

    Business and Economics. XIV, No. 2 (Spring 1990), pp.10 - 18.

20. [20]  See [19] for three illustrative uses of the forecasting and simulation properties of this modelling framework. Also you will find a full bibliography citing the underlying properties of the models used in the forecasts made in this study.

56